singapore’s energy transition: path dependency and physical limits ►
Singapore’s transition to clean energy faces unique challenges rooted in physical geography and path dependency. Despite a successful history of interventionist central planning, the state cannot fully control its energy future because of structural limitations. Singapore’s geography and lack of natural resources severely restrict domestic energy production, and solar expansion under the Singapore Green Plan is projected to meet only ~3% of local electricity demand. As a result, Singapore must continue to rely heavily on energy imports, increasing exposure to geopolitical and economic shocks. At the same time, Singapore’s electricity generation remains largely dependent on natural gas, creating costly infrastructure investment challenges for integrating renewables. The transition therefore requires careful trade-offs between reliability, affordability, and sustainability. The state, accustomed to wielding control, must balance these priorities whilst navigating geopolitical vulnerabilities that are inherent in its energy supply.
01/2026